It’s a few hours before the Oscars go live, and my roommates and I are hosting a small party. The best part (in my opinion) about award show parties are taking bets about who will win. I say “bets” but there is absolutely no money involved, just the pride of getting it right!

So here is a breakdown of who I want to win in each category vs. who I think might actually come home with a statuette. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen every nominated film, but I try my best every year. So some of my predictions are based on having seen the film and others are based on keeping up with media reception. We’ll see how this pans out for me…

Best Picture

There are some real stunners in this year’s best picture round. Some years I have scoffed at what gets nominated and counted among the best, but there are several deserving films this year that I’d be thrilled if they won. However–

Caitlin’s Choice: Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance). I loved this film. It blew me away in so many categories. And I just can’t stop thinking about it.

Academy’s Choice: Boyhood. Honestly it could be a toss-up between Boyhood and Whiplash, but a lot of people could not stop talking about the bold choice of filming over more than a decade to produce Boyhood. Sometimes the Academy rewards these daring choices, particularly when a well-respected director such as Linklater is at the helm.

Best Actor

Caitlin’s Choice: Michael Keaton for Birdman. A major part of the reason Birdman is so memorable for me is because of Keaton’s meta performance that was at once brilliant and brutal.

Academy’s Choice: Steve Carell for Foxcatcher. Now, I haven’t seen Foxcatcher but Carell’s performance is apparently a stunning transformation for the happy-go-lucky comedian we’re used to seeing. Again, I often think the Academy rewards these bold choices, particularly when an actor might go unrecognized thereafter (not a very comedy heavy roster at the Oscars).

Best Actress

Caitlin’s Choice: Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl. For a film that got largely snubbed this year, Gone Girl could not have a better representative that Rosamund Pike. Her performance in that film is next level crazy and altogether riveting.

Academy’s Choice: Julianne Moore in Still Alice. Honestly, I think Moore is due for an Oscar. Sometimes it feels like the Academy gives awards to actors and directors for a film because they recognize they dropped the ball on other nominations. Not that Moore’s performance in Still Alice isn’t worthy of this particular nomination (because it is) but there are more factors in play here that a single film.

Best Supporting Actor

Caitlin’s Choice: Edward Norton in Birdman. Norton nearly stole the show in every scene of the film. He shines in Birdman, and his character seemed to force the other players to keep up or be left in the dust. Give the man an Oscar.

Academy’s Choice: Edward Norton in Birdman. Perhaps this is wishful thinking on my part, but I’m really hoping this is true. Norton just seems like the right choice–J.K. Simmons won a Golden Globe for his role in Whiplash, so I’m not counting him out, but sometimes that’s how awards season works.

Best Supporting Actress

Caitlin’s Choice: Emma Stone in Birdman. If you’re sensing a pattern with my choices, then you would be correct. This is also probably why the Oscars are not decided by me as it would be incredibly one-sided. I’m also going to admit to a huge bias towards Emma Stone in general; she is one of my favorite actresses and Birdman was a great dramatic role for her.

Academy’s Choice: Laura Dern in Wild. I honestly cannot explain why I think this will be. It’s just a gut feeling, which would be horribly misplaced but that’s who I’m going with nevertheless.

Best Animated Feature Film

Caitlin’s Choice: Big Hero 6. I’m a sucker for a Disney film, but Big Hero 6 is also a well-balanced film that could easily garner the win.

Academy’s Choice: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. Again, I have no logic to back this up, just a knee-jerk reaction when looking at the nominees.

Best Director

Caitlin’s Choice: Alejandro G. Inarritu for Birdman. I think Inarritu was innovative in his storytelling and pulled phenomenal performances from his actors. I’d love to see this man win the Oscar but he did win a Golden Globe so it might not happen. Sometimes the two awards do overlap, but it always seems unlikely.

Academy’s Choice: Richard Linklater for Boyhood. I just think this is the likely winner, as much for the films he wasn’t nominated for as for this particular film.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Caitlin’s Choice: The Theory of Everything screenplay by Anthony McCarten. If you’re adapting Steven Hawking you’re bound to be a winner, right? I’d like to see this film win for something, even though it is nominated quite a bit, I suspect it might get overlooked in favor of other films.

Academy’s Choice: Whiplash screenplay by Damien Chazelle. This film is a heavy contender in many categories but I think this is one of the moments when it will be rewarded by the Academy.

Best Original Screenplay

Caitlin’s Choice: The Grand Budapest Hotel screenplay by Wes Anderson, story by Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness. I don’t anticipate many wins for this film, though I appreciate that it got nominated in a few categories. Best original script would be a good thing to see Budapest take home though.

Academy’s Choice: Foxcatcher written by E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman. Another one of my gut feelings.

There are several other categories including Best Song and Cinematography, but with the remaining categories I either didn’t see enough of the films or don’t have strong feelings about them one way or the other. However this is where I stand on the heavy hitting categories, and I hope you enjoyed reading my predictions. Who are you rooting for tonight?

Thanks for popping in!